El og fjernvarme

Danmarks Energi- og Klimafremskrivning 2014 Baggrundsnotat C: Produktion af el og fjernvarme Indhold Indledning ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Kort beskrivelse af RAMSES.......................................................................................................................... 2 Frozen Policy metode .................................................................................................................................. 3 Økonomiske forudsætninger ....................................................................................................................... 3 El- og fjernvarmeforbrugets udvikling .......................................................................................................... 7 Kraftværkskapacitet i Norge, Sverige og Finland..........................................................................................10 Centrale værker i Danmark .........................................................................................................................11 Decentrale kraftvarmeværker i Danmark ....................................................................................................12 Vindkraft i Danmark ....................................................................................................................................13 Solceller i Danmark .....................................................................................................................................16 Biogas i Danmark ........................................................................................................................................16 Geotermi i Danmark ...................................................................................................................................16 Kollektive varmepumper og elkedler...........................................................................................................16 Kollektive solvarme.....................................................................................................................................16 Eltransmissionskapacitet.............................................................................................................................17 Sammensætning af elproduktionen ............................................................................................................20 Sammensætning af fjernvarmeproduktionen ..............................................................................................23 Brændselsforbrug .......................................................................................................................................24 Reservekapacitet ........................................................................................................................................26 Elpris ..........................................................................................................................................................27 Eludveksling ................................................................................................................................................29 Emissioner ..................................................................................................................................................30 PSO.............................................................................................................................................................30 Betydningen af CO2-kvoteprisen .................................................................................................................31 Følsomhedsanalyser ...................................................................................................................................32